El Nino conditions likely to emerge by May-July 2026, says World Meteorological Organisation

The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures pointing towards a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July 2026.

The report forecasted a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the upcoming three-month period, along with notable regional variations in rainfall distribution across different parts of the world.

“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.

“Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he added.

El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. These events significantly influence global weather systems, reshaping rainfall, drought conditions, and extreme weather events across continents.

El Nino is characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months. The WMO clarified that it does not use the term “super El Nino” as it is not part of standard operational classification.

The agency noted that El Nino events typically have a warming effect on global climate patterns. It further highlighted that 2024 became the hottest year on record due to the combined impact of the powerful 2023-2024 El Nino and human-induced climate change.
“There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall,” the report said.

El Nino conditions are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. During the boreal summer, it can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while suppressing cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin.

For the May-June-July 2026 season, WMO forecasts indicate that land surface temperatures are expected to be above normal nearly everywhere, with particularly strong signals over southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Northern Africa. Rainfall predictions, however, show strong regional variability.

The report also noted that seasonal forecasts are critical for preparedness in agriculture, water resource management, energy, and health sectors. WMO will release its next El Nino/La Nina update in late May for more refined guidance for the June-August period.

Meanwhile, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is currently in a neutral phase as of early April 2026, according to global monitoring centres, following the end of the 2025-26 La Nina. However, multiple forecast models suggest a transition towards El Nino conditions during boreal summer or autumn, potentially persisting through the end of the year.

The WMO further stated that regional climate outlook forums, including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, will issue monsoon forecasts on April 28, while a global seasonal briefing for UN and humanitarian agencies is scheduled for April 29, focusing on ENSO and other climate drivers.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier this month said that India is likely to see below-normal monsoon this year, the first time in three years.

The IMD said the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal (95-90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of +- 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on the period of 1971-2020, is 87 cm. 

Source: ANI
--Agencies