Sri Lanka could experience increased rainfall and possible flooding in some parts of the country during October and November due to the developing El Niño climate phenomenon, according to the Department of Meteorology.

Director of Forecasting at the Department of Meteorology, Ajith Wijemanna said, the El Niño conditions currently affecting the region remain at a weak level but are expected to intensify in the coming months.

He noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially forecast a greater than 60% probability of El Niño strengthening into a strong or very strong event between December and February.

As a result of the phenomenon, Sri Lanka is likely to experience below-average rainfall during July, August, and September. Temperatures are also expected to rise, particularly in August, while September may remain relatively dry.

However, Wijemanna explained that the weather outlook could change if typhoons develop over the Pacific Ocean, as such systems may enhance the southwest monsoon and bring additional rainfall to the island.

He further warned that the strengthening El Niño could lead to above-normal rainfall during October and November, increasing the risk of flooding in certain areas.

He stated that the southwest monsoon is expected to weaken under El Niño conditions, contributing to reduced rainfall during the latter part of the monsoon season. 

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon is expected to bring increased rainfall to the Northern and Eastern provinces, which could also result in flood situations depending on other weather factors.

The Department of Meteorology has urged the public to stay informed by following weather advisories and forecasts issued regularly by the department.